Kavli Affiliate: Roland Vanderspek
| First 5 Authors: Michelle Kunimoto, Joshua N. Winn, George R. Ricker, Roland Vanderspek,
| Summary:
The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has discovered $sim$5000
planets and planet candidates after three and a half years of observations.
With a planned second Extended Mission spanning Years 5 – 7 on the horizon, now
is the time to revise predictions of the TESS exoplanet yield. We present
simulations of the number of detectable planets around 9.4 million AFGKM stars
in the TESS Input Catalog Candidate Target List v8.01 through seven years of
the TESS mission. Our simulations take advantage of improved models for the
photometric performance and temporal window functions. The detection model was
also improved by relying on the results of inject-and-recovery testing by the
Kepler team. We estimate 4719$pm$334 planets around these stars should be
detectable with data from the Prime Mission alone (Years 1 – 2), and another
3707$pm$209 planets should be detectable by the end of the current Extended
Mission (Years 3 – 4). Based on a proposed pointing scenario for a second
Extended Mission (Years 5 – 7), we predict TESS should find a further
4093$pm$180 planets, bringing the total TESS yield to 12519$pm$678 planets.
We provide our predicted yields as functions of host star spectral type, planet
radius, orbital period, follow-up feasibility, and location relative to the
habitable zone. We also compare our predictions to the actual Prime Mission
yield, finding good agreement
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